Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 212340 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA O FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND ON MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. && 23Z UPDATE... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS HEAD SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH PUSHES MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH BRINGS MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST SAT TRENDS AND ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AT 18Z...WE WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STALLED EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST. RADAR SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE...SO A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULE OUT ACROSS THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE`LL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...THE CAROLINA LOW PASSES OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WITH FORECAST AREA REMAINING OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE INITIALLY STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO FINALLY DRIVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR WILL FLOOD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY COLD AIR...CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WIND BRINING THE PROSPECT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OR FROST TO MANY INTERIOR SECTIONS AS WE BEGIN THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY STRONG ANOMOLOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR WINDS TO BE ALIGNED AND MIXING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. EXPECT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...NOT A SAFE TIME TO BE BOATING OVER VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALBEIT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST FRONT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO ME/NH DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE INITIALLY VERY DRY ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR FRI IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPING NW SFC WND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AFT 18Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GUSTY WNW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SAT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FEATURE. A SHOWERY PATTERN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS WELL INTO SCA THRESHOLDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MAY OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-013. NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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