000
FXUS61 KGYX 112348
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRING AND END TO THE SHOWERS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
735 PM...BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUSION TRACKING ENE
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CENTER OF BROAD AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER WRN
NEW ENGLAND AT 23Z. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVE. ONCE THE BAND MOVES THROUGH THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...SHOULD SEE ONLY SCT SHRA AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES OVER
SRN NH AND INTO GULF OF ME. IN THE NRN ZONES COULD SEE A FEW MORE
FREQUENT SHRA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID AND UPPR LVL LOW PASSES
THROUGH.

PREVIOUSLY...THE SFC/UPR LOW WILL MOVE ACRS CNTRL NEW ENGL
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY WED MRNG.
TONIGHT PLENTY OF UVV MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
SHWRS OR RN WITH ADDITIONAL QPF OF ARND .25 EXPECTED - BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE RIVERS OR STREAMS SO THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AN ABUNDANCE OF MSTR IN THE
BNDRY LYR SO PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY THE ENTIRE SYSTEM ORGANIZES INTO ONE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA.
STILL A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HOLDS BACK OVER THE REGION AS A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ALIGNED WITH THE SFC WINDS AND ALSO SOME CAA ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTN HELPING CAUSE
THOSE GSTY WINDS.

WED NIGHT THE SYSTEM EXITS AND CLEARING TAKES PLACE AS WEAK HIGH
PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL AND USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUID.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR THE
NATION/S CAPITAL BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN TO SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS FEATURE AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS SO FAR PROVEN TO BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR THE
MODELS...IE...HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVY
RAIN SHIELD GET. PART OF THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS AND OH VALLEY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL QPF LESSENS AS SOME NEGATIVE IMPACT
TO MODEL MASS FIELDS OCCUR.

NEVERTHELESS...AS THE LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR SOUTH...AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE HIGH-END LIKELY TO LOW
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ZONES LATE THU THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER POPS THE FURTHER NORTH ONE GOES. AS FAR
AS GETTING A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE AREA...THAT IS A
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE APPROACH
LEAVES THE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES
THROUGH. HEAVY PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED BUT IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A
GREAT DAY WEATHERWISE. HOWEVER...WE LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND...IT SHOULD BE A GOOD ONE. THE GFS BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL IT IS TOO
FAST WITH IT/S WAA PATTERN. PREFER THE MAINLY DRY ECMWF THERE.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...735 PM... COULD SEE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AT THE TERMINALS...BUT IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL
RETURN IN SHRA AND FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT N-NW...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR NOT LKLY
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY.


LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN
ME BY LATER THURS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS AND SEAS AT SCA CONDS ATTM BUT BOTH WINDS/SEAS IN THE BAYS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SO ONLY CONTD THE SCA IN THE BAYS INTO THIS
EVENING. OVER THE OUTER WATERS SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE FORM OF HIGH SEAS TNGT THRU WED MRNG AND THEN FOR WINDS WED
AFTN AND INTO WED EVENG AS GSTY NWLY WINDS DVLP.

LONG TERM...SCA POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...