Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250143 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 943 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT... DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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940 PM...AGAIN...JUST A FEW T/TD ADJUSTMENTS...BUT DID TWEAK MINS A LITTLE BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THEY ENDED UP A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN A FEW SPOTS AS SOME LIGHT FLOW IS PERSISTING THIS EVE. 605 PM...SOME MINOR CHANGES TO T/TD BASED ON CURRENT OBS. ITS A LITTLE WARMER ATTM THAN CURRENT FORECASTS...BUT GIVEN GOOD RAD COOLING...HAVE LEFT MINS WHERE THERE ARE AS TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL CHECK AGAIN LATER TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THEY FALL AND IF ADJUSTMENT TO MINS ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH PRETTY VARIED READINGS ACROSS THE AREA. REMAINED CLOSE TO THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND CMC- REGIONAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW MUCH MORE MILD AIR TO SURGE NORTH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. WITH THIS WAVE OF WARM ADVECTION SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. AT THIS TIME QPF LOOKS VERY LIGHT...AND SATURATION FAIRLY BRIEF. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A NON- DIURNAL TREND AND LIKELY RISE THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE INTERIOR MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALL FROZEN. EVENTUALLY SATURATION ALOFT MAY BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE AND COULD SEE A DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT SHARPENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE STRETCHING EAST TO THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SOAR INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S WITH MORE RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OR EVEN SNOWFALL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS TIME. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. AS IT MOVES EAST... IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EASTWARD AS WELL... SHUTTING OFF THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW MELTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWPACK IS GETTING RIPE FOR MELTING... AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S... DEWPOINTS WELL ABOVE FREEZING... AND 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN... THERE COULD BE A DRAMATIC DROP IN SNOW COVER AND A CORRESPONDING RISE IN RIVER LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ICE MOVEMENT. COLD FRONT TRIES TO BRING COLDER AIR IN ON FRIDAY... BUT AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BEHIND COLD FRONTS... TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN ALONG THE COAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LAST THRU WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY EVENING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CLEARS OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WHITEFIELD. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WINDS TO NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LONG TERM...WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL WINDS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG AND MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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