000
FXUS61 KGYX 111444
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1044 AM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SETTING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THAT COULD SET OFF A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK FOR CHILLY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM...IN GENERAL...LOOK FOR A BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE
MIDDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE...AS WE BREAK
INTO A BIT OF A WARM SECTOR. WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA START TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC TDS CREEP UP AND WE GENERATE SOME
INSTABILITY...DESPITE ALL THE CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE
IN AS WELL WHICH WILL HELP DEVELOP OF CONVECTION...OR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY SMALL HAIL IN ISOLD
CELLS...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT
VALUES IN THE 1.25-1.5" RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE
SHOW FORWARD PROPAGATING...FAVORABLE MBE VELOCITIES...SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING. ALSO...GIVEN TDS AROUND 60...IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL HUMID OUT THERE AS WELL TODAY.


PREVIOUSLY...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING S/WV THAT TRAVELS NORTHEAST THRU THE ST LAWRENCE
VLY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHWRS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS TO MOVE THRU
THE AREA TODAY. PW`S ARE VERY HIGH SO SOME HVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION. UNLIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, A
DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY WIND FLOW ALOFT DVLPS TODAY ALLOWING ALL
THE CONVECTION TO MOVE RAPIDLY SO NO SIFNIFICANT ISSUES WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE DOWNPOURS IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/SHWRS TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED AND KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS THE S/WV EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHWRS WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A MUCH DRIER AMS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION ON A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE MTNS ON
SUNDAY AS A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND SOME SUN, THE TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 70 DEGS
FOR HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG CAA WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO ADVECT ON IN. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO PASS WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
EFFECT ON OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WAA
PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
MOISTENING AIRMASS WITH INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH
A POSSIBLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...THE PATCHY EARLY MRNG FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS
MIXING OCCURS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR TO IFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SHWRS
AND EVEN PSBLY A FEW TSTMS. THESE CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AN INCREASING SSELY FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SEAS/WINDS
TO REACH SCA CONDS. THESE CONDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT OCCUR OVER THE WATERS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN
AOA THE SCA THRESHOLD OF 5 FT UNTIL AFTERNOON. BY LATE SUN THE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
THEREAFTER...LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS ARE FORESEEN UNTIL
MIDWEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST AIR AND SHRA ACTIVITY IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP
FIRE DANGER DOWN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND OUT
TO SEA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...