Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 051744 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1244 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TODAY... SPREADING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230PM UPDATE... HAVE UPGRADED THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR COASTLINE TO A WARNING AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. FINALLY SEEING THE BACK END OF THE SNOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. STILL HEAVY SNOW FALLING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. LIKELY TO SEE A FEW 10 INCH REPORTS BEFORE IT`S OVER. 1130AM UPDATE... HAVE UPGRADED THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON INTENSE BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL LIKELY STAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS POINT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AMOUNTS APPROACH 8 TO 10 INCHES IN SPOTS PARTICULARLY EAST OF PORTLAND. 11AM UPDATE... HAVE MADE MORE MODIFICATIONS TO TIMING OF WHEN SNOWFALL WILL END AS WELL AS TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BASED ON REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR. HAVE UPGRADED COASTAL YORK COUNTY AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HERE NOW LIKELY TO REACH 6 INCHES OR MORE. COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WARNING ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED ADVISORIES IN MAINE TO EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM AS SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. THIS AXIS WILL REACH THE MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER AROUND 18Z WITH SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 1PM AND 4PM ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND CONTINUING ALONG THE MIDCOAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. 9AM UPDATE... HAVE FURTHER ADJUSTED POP AND SNOW AMOUNT AND EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO THE FOOTHILLS ZONES OF MAINE. UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG THE MIDCOAST CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORS TO OUR EAST AND LATEST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS. SOME CONCERN ON TIMING OF THE ENDING OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS SNOW COULD LAST JUST A BIT LONGER THAN FORECAST. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING. 830AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY AND EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CHESHIRE COUNTY. HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD ADD TO THE INCH OR TWO THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THERE. BAND OF SNOW NOTED ON RADAR FURTHER INLAND FROM CHESHIRE COUNTY TO LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE HAS ALSO BEEN PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SNOW TOTALS OF 7 INCHES. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS THIS BAND MAY BEGIN MOVING SOON. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... S/WV TROF APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPANDING TO OUR SOUTH AND IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW. PRECIPITATIONS IS INITIALLY FALLING AS RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND. SNOW SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND BY MID AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION WITH 0.60 TO 0.70 ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SOME BANDING OF PRECIPITATION AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL COMES IN ABOVE 6 INCHES. MOVED PRECIPITATION SHIELD INLAND FARTHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INLAND ONE SET OF ZONES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE 7 TO 11 TIME FRAME IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ALONG THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT OF THE PICTURE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THATS WHERE AGREEMENT ENDS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE COMPLEX AND WILL DEPEND ON INTENSITY OF SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF WHICH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW LARGE THE SYSTEM WILL BE...EXPECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON THROUGH TUE. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION AND THEN TRACK OF ANY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE TUE WHICH WOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE. DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO SIMPLY WATCH LATEST TRENDS OF MODELS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM LATE MON THROUGH TUE FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS BY TUE NIGHT A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS PER BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST. FOR TUE/WED LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS FROM SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE DUE TO COLD HIGH TO NORTH LOCKING COLD AIR IN PLACE ON NORTH DRAINAGE WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW /VLIFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS/ COVERING ALL OF THE TERMNINALS EXCEPT LEB-HIE...WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES FROM MHT NORTH THROUGH PWM...RKD...AND AUG. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MARCH EAST...MOVING THROUGH MHT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND THROUGH AUG-RKD TOWARDS EVENING. AS THIS ARRIVES...RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS THIS AFTERNOON /WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING/ DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE BACKING SOUTWESTERLY 5-10KTS FOR THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND SNOWFALL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY DURING THE DAY. LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD CAPE COD TUESDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE TUE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ012. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013- 014. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018- 019-023-024. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ020>022-025>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-008-009-012-015. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ010- 013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...ARNOTT MARINE...

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