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000
FXHW60 PHFO 150207
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN EXPOSED AREAS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE STATE.
OCCASIONALLY THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONTO THE UPPER LEEWARD
SLOPES...WITH DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY A 1030 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL TAPER OFF FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STILL
BE FRESH BREEZES IN MOST AREAS TO LOCALLY STRONG IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS...AND WILL REMAIN ABOUT THIS SPEED THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
SHOW A STRONG 8500 FOOT INVERSION IN PLACE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
STATE SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THIS MORNING/S
RAINFALL TO STOP WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ACTIVE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL LIFT OUR INVERSION HEIGHTS...OR LOW CLOUD
TOPS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MIDLEVEL 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE PASSING SHOWERS
CARRIED IN BY THE TRADES MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN USUAL. WHILE
THE TRADES WILL FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THE ELEVATED INVERSION AND FRESH WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE NEARBY LEEWARD SLOPES.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS.

THE WET PATTERN OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER
THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT. ASSUMING THIS IS CORRECT IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER WEAKENING IN THE TRADE WINDS AND A RETURN TO
MORE STABLE / DRIER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE PREVALENT SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND PATTERN IN PLACE...EXPECT
TO SEE TYPICAL INCREASES IN NIGHTTIME AND MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THEN
DECREASING AMOUNTS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS. LEE SIDES OF
THE ISLANDS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME.

STURDY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCNL MODERATE
TURBULENCE JUST DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY SO
AN AIRMET FOR OCNL MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE STATE. THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND THUS
THE TURBULENCE WILL BECOME MORE MARGINAL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE ALL COASTAL WATERS
EXCEPT LEEWARD MAUI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY THE TYPICAL WINDY LOCATIONS AROUND MAUI AND BIG
ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL THEN STAY RELATIVELY THE SAME THROUGH THE NEXT FOUR
TO FIVE DAYS.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
OF THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE SHOWING DOWNWARD TRENDS AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO COME BACK UP AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER... CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHOPPY AND CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR ALL OTHER FACING SHORES...SURF WILL REMAIN ON THE SMALL
SIDE INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...FUJII