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000
FXHW60 PHFO 140136
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TRADES
TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EASE JUST A BIT TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH THE MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW. AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH
LIMITED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
HIGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH ANOTHER HIGH JUST NORTHWEST
OF IT...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO EASE A BIT OVER
THE ISLANDS. THIS COMBINED HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO EASE TO THE EAST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH LOOK FOR MODERATE
LEVEL TRADES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WINDS HAVE DROPPED A BIT...WITH NONE OF THE REPORTING SITES
REPORTING ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS AT 2 PM. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO
EASE TONIGHT...WILL BE DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

SATELLITE SHOWS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR NORMAL
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS...WHICH AGREES WITH THE
AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AT LIHUE AND HILO. THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
REACHING LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CLOUDS...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK...AND WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DON/T EXPECT IT TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND STRENGTH SOME. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD KEEP AN EVEN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS...RESULTING
IN STEADY WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THE HIGH IS DISRUPTED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE WINDS
WEAKENING SOME MORE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE WINDS DROPPING JUST A BIG THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL HAS BEEN DROPPED...WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING IN PLACE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME AREAS.

SURF REMAINS ELEVATED OVER THE EAST FACING SHORES DUE TO THE TRADE
WIND SWELL. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURF WILL REMAIN ON THE SMALL SIDE ALONG OTHER SHORES INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WITH SOMEWHAT STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT WILL PERSIST. ENE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER TERRAIN AND
THROUGH VALLEYS...AND AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR MOD LOW LEVEL
TURB TO LEE OF TERRAIN. THE INVERSION IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO
ACTIVE CUMULUS FIELD AFFECTING THE STATE. THIS FIELD WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SHRA ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. MOST
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PHTO AND PHLI TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...WROE