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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS LITTLE
HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR THE TEXAS- OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BRISK WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
AGAIN BE LIMITED AS A STOUT CAP WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 850MB.
AMDAR SOUNDING FOR KHOU REVEALED 800MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C.

ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL PROBABLY WIN
OUT SOUTH OF IH-10. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE NORTH OF IH-10 WITH A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAK THE CAP AT KCLL WHILE HOLDING ON TO IT
AT KIAH AND OTHER SOUTHWARD SITES. AT KCLL CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND
2500 J/KG WITH LI`S OF -8. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HOLDS ONTO
THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS EVENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE HOT AND HUMID. 23

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL PUT UP A SCEC
FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 12-18 KNOTS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL JET
TRANSITS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEYOND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
LIGHTER AND MAY EVEN BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY WITH
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN MVFR DECK 17-2700 WHICH IS A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. FAR MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE GULF
THIS MORNING AND LOOKING AT ACARS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS AM EXPECTING
THE MVFR DECK TO BREAK UP AROUND 15Z BECOMING FEW/SCT AND BREEZY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. MVFR DECK REDEVELOPS BETWEEN 00-04Z
COASTAL AREAS FIRST AND EXPANDING NORTH AGAIN.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  73  90  71  88 /  10  10  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  75  90  73  88 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  73  80  74  81 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...45