Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 161749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

It`s been a rather busy morning across SE TX with the continued de-
velopment of strong/severe thunderstorms (generally along and south
of the I-10 corridor). Reports of large hail have been the main is-
sue so far.

With regards to how these current storms are going to affect the set
up for the rest of today/tonight; a lot remains up in the air, so to
speak, as hi-res models have not initialized well. Regardless, there
is still the stalled cold front located just off the Upper TX coast,
and the good likelihood of additional embedded shortwaves in the mid
and upper flow moving across the area (from west to east). These sy-
stems could help to draw the front back inland later this afternoon,
which will then act as a focus for re-development at that time...and
into this evening/tonight. Per the latest outlooks from the national
centers, SPC has our SW counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
Day 1 with a Marginal Risk (level 2 of 5) elsewhere across SE TX. As
for the potential for excessive rainfall...WPC has all of SE TX in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for today and tonight. As it stands right
now, the best chances for active weather (after this morning) should
be late this afternoon into tonight.

With a lot of the same ingredients/pattern in place for tomorrow, we
should see another round (or two) of showers and thunderstorms...but
timing will be the main problem. We`ll likely see lower POPs as well
as clearing skies by late Sun night as the cold front finally pushes
well off the coast. So, until then... 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A drier/cooler/quieter weather pattern will be in place across SE TX
by the start of the week as strong surface high pressure builds down
from the Central Plains. As the high moves east of the region by mid
week, onshore winds and low-level moisture are set to return through
the rest of the week. However, long-range models are also hinting at
the possibility of rain chances returning to SE TX with the develop-
ment of a weak coastal trough late Weds into Thurs. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

SHRA/TSRA likely in the region this afternoon. Best chance of TS
will be along and south of I-10. However, lightning has been
observed well north of the primary thunderstorms. Winds will
generally be east but are likely to vary at times due to the
impact thunderstorms will have on the pressure gradient. Tonight,
conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for
SHRA/TSRA. Confidence is very low regarding timing of possible
thunderstorms. We have shifted the VCTS time frame earlier, with
most areas starting around 08Z or 09Z, continuing until about 13Z
to 15Z. A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging
wind gusts and hail remain possible. Overall winds are expected to
become more NE tomorrow. Worth mentioning that cigs and vis are
likely to jump around through the forecast period. However,
conditions are expected to average around low-end MVFR this
afternoon followed by predominantly IFR conditions overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Elevated rip currents will remain a good possibility today...with sea
fog returning tonight. Otherwise, generally moderate east winds (from
10-15kts) should prevail through the rest of the weekend... but high-
er gusts will occur in and near the scattered thunderstorms which are
also going to prevail through the rest of the weekend. All of this is
courtesy of a nearly stalled frontal boundary over the area, combined
with a series of disturbances passing overhead. The front should move
further off the coast by Sun night with strong NE winds (15-25kts) in
its wake. Small Craft Advisories will the possible.

Light onshore flow resumes Tues, slightly increasing by midweek along
with the return of shower/thunderstorm chances by late Weds. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for Saturday (3/16)
and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  70  52  64 /  80  50  10   0
Houston (IAH)  65  74  56  68 /  70  60  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  71  58  67 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...41


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