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000
FXUS64 KHGX 150833
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING
E-NE TOWARD NW AREAS OF SE TX. WE SHOULD SEE A PORTION OF THIS
CONVECTION PUSH INTO SE TX AROUND 5 AM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
AREA. WILL TAPER THE POPS TODAY FROM THE W/NW TO THE E/SE FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL REDUCE THE POPS SOME
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND INCREASE THEM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
BASICALLY...THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS PRECIP PATTERN
TODAY...BLENDED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY IN THE
QUARTER INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A COUPLE OF INCHES. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG
STORMS TODAY WITH SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY. THE SVR TSTM THREAT
LOOKS LOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON THU.
A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FRI AND SAT RESULTING
IN VERY LOW POPS AND WARM TEMPS. ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROF MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUN AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE...BUT MOST PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SE TX. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CEN US. WILL
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PD TO
ACCOUNT FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED WELL TO THE N/NE OF SE TX. 33

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS (IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT COURTESY OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE) EXPECTED TO PERS-
IST THROUGH TODAY. LEVELS REMAINING JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA ATTM.

OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING THINGS TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A MORE LIGHT THAN MODERATE SELY FLOW PROG-
GED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...THROUGH 15Z OR
SO. STRONG SWLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL HELP TO MIX THESE LOW
DECKS OUT BY MID MORNING BUT BY THEN WE SHOULD BE DEALING WITH PCPN
ISSUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONFI-
DENCE WAVERING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS/VIS THURS MORNING. 41

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  67  84  72  88 /  70  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  68  84  71  88 /  60  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  71  80  74  82 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33