Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
000
FXUS64 KHGX 130453
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Another comfortable and quiet day with low humidity and afternoon
temperatures mainly in the upper 70s. Surface high pressure
continues to drift eastward while a surface low moves over the
central Plains this afternoon/evening. This pattern of southerly
surface flow will keep the region warm with continued inflow of
Gulf moisture into the region. Another mild night can be expected
with mostly cloudy skies and patchy fog (mainly low-lying fog).
Overnight lows will generally range in the 60s.
Another surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies on
Wednesday, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient over the
Plains. Southerly warm and breezy conditions, and 850 mb
temperatures in the mid teens will lead to a warm day with highs
mainly in the low 80s. Models suggest some showers developing
during the day as a few mid-level shortwaves move through. PWAT
values remain moderate (up to 1.5 inches); however, forecast
soundings keep suggesting a strong cap, thus any activity will
need to fight this layer. Have leaned towards the NBM guidance for
PoPs and kept a relatively dry forecast.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
More turbulent weather is expected Thursday and Friday with a wet
weather pattern potentially continuing into the weekend.
Setting the stage for Thursday, mid to upper level disturbances will
be moving overhead later this week, while at the surface a cold
front will push across Central Texas. An 850mb jet will develop over
SE TX ahead of the front, leading to an increase in winds at the
surface (10-15 mph gusting to 20-25mph. PWAT values will increase 1o
1.3-1.6 inches in response to increased moisture advection.
Additionally, CAPE values will be on the rise, with values exceeding
3000 J/kg in the Brazos Valley and along the coast. Values exceed
1500 J/kg through the Coastal Plains, Houston Metro, and Piney
Woods. The atmosphere is expected to be capped in the morning;
however, daytime heating will help to destabilize the cap leading to
thunderstorm initiation in the afternoon hours. Temperature wise,
the combination of southerly flow and increased moisture will lead
to muggy conditions with highs in the 80s and dew points elevated to
the upper 60s and low 70s.
As the cold front inches closer to SE Texas, expect to see an
increase in showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday.
Given the aforementioned setup, SPC has placed the Brazos Valley and
portions of the Piney Woods area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe weather and areas north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for severe weather. While all severe weather threats will be
possible, the main concerns will be damaging hail and wind.
The cold front makes a slow approach to SE Texas during the day
Friday, but models have it stalling just before the Brazos Valley.
Previous model runs have had the front stalling along the coast, so
will need to see a little more consistency run to run before
confidence increases on timing and location of the front. However,
if the current setup hold true, this would keep warm moist air
around and would allow showers and storms to continue into the
weekend. A reinforcing cold front is projected to move through on
Monday, bringing a cooler and drier airmass along with it.
In any case, continue to monitor the weather for Thursday with the
threat of severe thunderstorms in the forecast, and have multiple
ways to receive alerts!
Temperatures will generally be in the 70s and 80s through the
weekend before Monday`s cold front brings temperatures down into the
60s.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Conditions have been a bit slow to degrade, and most terminals are
still at VFR at 05Z. Still, full expectations that MVFR will
emerge as many FEW020ish decks are being reported, and those
should fill in shortly. With things taking some time to come down,
did get a touch more optimistic over the next several hours,
largely sitting at the IFR/MVFR threshold, rather than more fully
into IFR CIGs. Except for LBX and GLS at the coast, should see
gradual improvement back to VFR by afternoon, along with gusty
S/SE winds again. Then back down to low MVFR or high IFR again
after dark.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Light to moderate southeast winds will continue through the end of
the work week. Seas are expected to increase later in the week due
to the increasing southeasterly fetch. Conditions are expected to
become somewhat favorable for patchy sea fog late Tuesday through
Thursday. Rising sea surface temperatures may inhibit development,
however. Rain chances return Thursday and could continue through the
upcoming weekend.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 83 69 83 / 0 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 64 84 70 84 / 0 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 65 76 67 74 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams