Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 182001
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion!
Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a
breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid
60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with
disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some
cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar
actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers.
However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have
fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few
rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface
observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the
ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities.

A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas
tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds
this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned
clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially
over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly
with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our
northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around
50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on
Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually
southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply
Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere,
resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light
southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from
falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s
in our northern / northeast counties).

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid
to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across
SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the
Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system
will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson,
Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though
conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If
an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly
area, the hail would be the main concern.

Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on
Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with
areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest
rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t
out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor
street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the
rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could
still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper
level low continues to swing through.

There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high
temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low
70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but
southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant
weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

Fowler


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Gusty northeast winds will decline this evening into tonight.
Clouds may increase for a time this afternoon before decreasing
tonight. Winds tomorrow are expected to become more easterly with
clouds increasing once again. However, cigs are expected to remain
VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front
will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the
Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past
few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters,
but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick
conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least
exercise caution into Tuesday morning.

Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through
Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and
there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night.
A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday
causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters
Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will
be possible near the coastal low.

Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake
of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns
for the weekend with mostly clear skies.

Fowler


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  41  64  50  67 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  44  67  53  69 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  53  61  56  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler


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