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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161631
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL MIX OUT WITH HEATING AND WINDS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
REMAIN MODERATE AND DECREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MODELS HINT AT LIFR CIGS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KIAH. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...AGAIN NORTH OF KIAH.
MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 16Z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...
THE FAR NORTH(EAST)ERN CWA...OR THE REGION THAT WAS MOST AFFECTED
BY LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION...IS SKY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A THINNING...CLOUD STREET DECK.
WITH NEAR COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
70S...SAT VIS ALREADY DISPLAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-MORNING
SEA BREEZE. SHORT TERM HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELING THAT DID INITIATE
WELL SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THE LONE MCS RIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL NOT AFFECT US...BUT DUE
TO THE CLEAR EARLY DAY SKY AND THE EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS OVER US...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF POP UP
CONVECTION (MAINLY SHRA) OVER THOSE COMMUNITIES NORTHEAST OF A
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. DUE TO RELATIVELY
CLEARER SKIES...A NEAR 30 KNOT WIND WILL MIX DOWN MAKING FOR A
BREEZY DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MEAN MIDDLE 80S. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

THE MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE TEXAS HAS WEAKENED.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BURLESON...BRAZOS...AND
MADISON COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR. COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH WITH THIS CLUSTER BEFORE IT WEAKENS IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE CANCELED THE SVR TSTM WATCH.
THINK MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 7 AM...SO WILL HAVE A
PRE-TODAY PERIOD TO HANDLE THE ONGOING PRECIP IN THE NEW TEXT
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SOME WEAK SHORT WV ENERGY TO CONTEND
WITH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP
FOR ISO TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STILL MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA WELL
AHEAD OF THE SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY AND IT WILL PROBABLY STALL AROUND
I-10 LATER THIS MORNING. WILL BE A COOL START FOR THOSE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-LOWER 60S. HOWEVER WE WILL WARM UP
INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ON FRI AND SAT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PD. MOSTLY A DRY
FORECAST AS WELL...THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AFFECTING THE
AREA ON TUESDAY SO INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THEN. 33

MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING. TIGHTENED GRADIENT IN RE-
SPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
INLAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE AFTN
WITH WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CRITERIA BY THEN. OTHERWISE
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
SELY WINDS PREVAILING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  71  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  71  88  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  73  82  74  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43