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000
FXUS64 KHGX 172354
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The warm, humid, and mostly cloudy regime continues today thanks
to moist onshore LL flow along with tropical Pacific oriented UL
moisture brought to you by SW flow aloft. The flow aloft is being
driven by a modestly amplified pattern thanks to a mid/upper ridge
centered over the W Gulf of Mexico and a deep layer trough over
western CONUS. Temperatures are generally in the low/mid 80s with
dew points averaging around 70F. Though clouds may break up
somewhat this afternoon, the general outlook for sky conditions
through tomorrow morning is mostly cloudy. Tonight`s lows are
expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. The development of low
clouds is likely. Patchy fog is possible.

Early today, widely scattered rain showers developed near the
coast and offshore. This is due to subtle vort maxes embedded in
the flow aloft. Most guidance shows another weak vort max moving
off the Texas Coast tomorrow morning. Therefore, we have added
some low PoPs near the coast and offshore between 4AM and 9AM.
Shower activity, if any, will be isolated to widely scattered. The
mid/upper synoptic pattern becomes more zonal on Thursday with
lower RHs in the mid and upper levels. This may allow for more
sunshine than experienced today. Therefore, temperatures are
forecast to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with inland highs in
the mid/upper 80s (around 80 at the coast). With dew points around
70F, heat index values are expected to be in the low 90s. So a
bit sweaty for your Thursday.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Weak, stalled frontal boundary or outflow in, or near our nw zones,
should linger around that general vicinity on Friday. This feature
along with the seabreeze and weak impulses moving overhead may allow
for isolated-scattered shra/tstms during the afternoon and evening
hours.

On Saturday, surface high pressure building southward through the
Plains should give the front a push later in the day and overnight
and across the remainder of Southeast Texas. PW`s (1.7-2.0") pooling
ahead of the feature, in combination with a stronger upper level
disturbance approaching the area should lead to widespread shower
and thunderstorm development. Some guidance is depicting a fairly
diffluent flow aloft Saturday night across northern parts of the
region...possibly leading to some locally heavy rainfall if and
where this sets up. Currently, most deterministic data suggests
areas north of a Brenham-Trinity line might be the place to look.
Some are depicting 2-6" amounts Sat evening and overnight. Too early
for much in the way of confidence, but something we`ll need to keep
an eye on.

Guidance is back on track to showing most of the rain ending Sunday
morning as the front pushes offshore. A few earlier runs indicated
the potential for some lingering shra into Sunday afternoon ahead of
the H85/H7 front. Time will tell.

More seasonable wx is then anticipated into early next week. Return
flow sets back up along with a corresponding warming/modifying trend
toward midweek.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions expected to become MVFR in the next couple of hours
with MVFR/IFR CIGs expected overnight into Thursday morning.
Patchy fog may also lead to MVFR VSBYs. VSBY and CIGs are expected
to improve by mid to late morning Thursday. Winds through the
period with be light out of the SE.

Adams

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A continued onshore flow will persist into Saturday. Periods of haze
and fog can be anticipated though it is not expected to become
dense. The next cold front, and associated showers and
thunderstorms, is scheduled to push off the coast late Saturday
night or Sunday morning followed by moderate northeast winds in its
wake. Onshore winds resume during the early to middle of next week.
47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Only one River Flood Warning remains in effect as of early Wednesday
morning. The Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) is currently
cresting in minor flood stage and is forecast to remain in minor
flood stage through Friday afternoon. We`re also continuing to
monitor the Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) as its secondary
crest is forecast to reach into minor flood stage on Friday
afternoon.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  88  68  84 /  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  73  88  71  86 /  10  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  72  80  71  78 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...47