000
FXUS64 KHGX 181230
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
730 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
TSRA THAT WERE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA HAVE BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING
AND JUST HAD A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH KCLL TERMINAL. S/W
NEAR KSEP MOVING ESE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SHOWERS EAST.
THIS MORNINGS RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF OF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING MAINLY OVER THE CLL/UTS/CXO AREAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OF 88 DEGREES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE VCTS/VCSH TODAY THROUGH 00-03Z.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE KEY TO TIMING ARRIVAL AT AREA
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FOG CONCERNS IN THE VICINITY OF PRIOR RAINFALL
THANKS TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
W/NW. WHILE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDERS OF THE CWA...AM
CONCERNED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTN. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTN AS A
RESULT.

OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF A REPEAT FOR TOMORROW (BUT TO
A LESSER DEGREE) BEFORE THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TAKES BETTER HOLD AC-
ROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE A BIT
SHAKEN WITH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS OF A DOMINATING SUBSIDENT/RIDGEY
PATTERN SETTLING OVER THE AREA GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. AS SUCH A
LITTLE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A MORE REGULAR SUMMER TIME FCST OF
ISO/WIDELY SCT MAINLY DAYTIME PCPN STARTING OVER WEEKEND. 41

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS SLID A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST LEADING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME 5-15KNOT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEN SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT MORE AS TX UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SHOULD BECOME THE NORM BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TD
2 NEAR BELIZE HAS SLOWED AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY ISSUES FOR THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 45

AVIATION...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH ONGOING CONVECTION KTPL AND NEARING THE
KRWV-KCLL-KDKR AREAS. IT HAS BEEN MOVING AT AROUND 25 KNOTS TO THE
ESE AND SHOULD NEAR KCLL AROUND 1215Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR THE CXO/UTS/CLL AREAS
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING SE KEEPING THE AREA ACTIVE. IAH SOUTHWARD IS MORE DIFFICULT
TO ASCERTAIN IF WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL GET THIS SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...AT PRESENT THINK THAT BETTER WINDOW
FOR SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...STARTING 20-21Z AND
LINGERING FOR 3 OR 4 HOURS. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH VCTS AND
INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS 20-00Z AT IAH/HOU.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  75  94  75  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  80  90  80  90 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45