000
FXUS64 KHGX 171113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THIS MORNING
WHICH HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE. MODELS SHOW THIS AGAIN FOR
TOMORROW MORNING (AS SEEN BY DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS). NOT
READY TO GO WIDESPREAD IFR JUST YET. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND THEREFORE WILL TAKE MORE OVERNIGHT
COOLING TO REACH IFR CONDITIONS. HAVE HINTED AT IFR AND LEFT
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS.

23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE IN THE NW FLOW IS PRODUCING
SOME ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NW OF SE TX TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE BASED AROUND 10 KFT. ADDED A 20 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THIS
PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX
LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

IN GENERAL EXPECT A DRY AND WARM FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST FROM DAY TO DAY. THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROF AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS SE TX TUE/WED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT WILL ADVERTISE SOME
LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. BY
THU/FRI NEXT WEEK AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDS OVR TX WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS DEGREE OF RIDGING IN THE MODELS.

33

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SCEC CRITERIA BUT HAVE
SO FAR REMAINED MOSTLY BELOW. TIDE LEVELS WILL COME UP A BIT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  89  71  89 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  71  89  71  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  74  83  74  83 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...23