000
FXUS64 KHGX 181520
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO MADISONVILLE TO
CROCKETT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS BOUNDARY HAS NOT STABILIZED THE AREA
ENOUGH AND SKIES CAN REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE (EVERYTHING IS ALREADY OUT)...KEPT AREA POPS IN A 20%-40%
RANGE. UP NORTH AND NORTHWEST...LOWERED THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE IT APPEARS EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

AVIATION...
TSRA THAT WERE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA HAVE BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING
AND JUST HAD A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH KCLL TERMINAL. S/W
NEAR KSEP MOVING ESE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SHOWERS EAST.
THIS MORNINGS RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF OF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING MAINLY OVER THE CLL/UTS/CXO AREAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OF 88 DEGREES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REACH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SO HAVE VCTS/VCSH TODAY THROUGH 00-03Z.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE KEY TO TIMING ARRIVAL AT AREA
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FOG CONCERNS IN THE VICINITY OF PRIOR RAINFALL
THANKS TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
W/NW. WHILE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDERS OF THE CWA...AM
CONCERNED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTN. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS MORNING/AFTN AS A
RESULT.

OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF A REPEAT FOR TOMORROW (BUT TO
A LESSER DEGREE) BEFORE THE WEAK RIDGE ALOFT TAKES BETTER HOLD AC-
ROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE A BIT
SHAKEN WITH EXTENDED RANGE MODELS OF A DOMINATING SUBSIDENT/RIDGEY
PATTERN SETTLING OVER THE AREA GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. AS SUCH A
LITTLE MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH A MORE REGULAR SUMMER TIME FCST OF
ISO/WIDELY SCT MAINLY DAYTIME PCPN STARTING OVER WEEKEND. 41

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HAS SLID A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST LEADING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME 5-15KNOT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEN SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT MORE AS TX UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING SHOULD BECOME THE NORM BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TD
2 NEAR BELIZE HAS SLOWED AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY ISSUES FOR THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  95  75  96 /  30  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  75  94  75  95 /  40  40  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  80  90  80  90 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43