000
FXUS64 KHGX 171540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT`S MCS SKIRTING DOWN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. NORTHERN
MEXICO RIDGING/UPPER NW FLOW WILL KEEP TODAY`S WEATHER SIMILAR TO
THIS RECENT PATTERN OF MID 90F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...AROUND 90F
ALONG COAST...UNDER PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY
DRIER OFFSHORE AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOWERING EASTERN TEXAS HEIGHTS (OR WEAKER RIDGING AS
THE 5H RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST) WILL INCREASE TUESDAY`S PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OF PRIMARILY WIDELY-SCATTERED CONVECTION. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEK ON TAP. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN
MEXICO WILL LEAD TO MAINLY NW FLOW ALOFT. FRONT MOVING S THRU OK
INTO N TX WILL TRIGGER SOME ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS OR
PRECIP THAT HAS ENOUGH SWD MOMENTUM TO IMPACT N/NE COUNTIES IN OUR
CWA. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH, BUT IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR, LATE TUE AFTN-WED WOULD PROBABLY BE THE MORE
FAVORED TIME PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SEWD INTO E TX & LA.

RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING HIGHS BACK UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND FURTHER SHUTTING DOWN
RAIN CHANCES. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP AREA OF DISTURBED WX (CURRENTLY
CONFINED TO MID LEVELS) IN THE CARIBBEAN ON A WNW TRACK ACROSS
THE YUCATAN AND INTO MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK WITH NO WX IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED HERE.

RIDGE LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLUG OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ATTM.  47

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGER OVER THE NERN GULF. SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN-
ED GRADIENT (DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER N/
NE TX) MAY GIVE US BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES/FLAGS ATTM. 41

AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING (AND LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING) AS THIS
SUMMER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SHRA THIS AFTN WILL BE ISO
SO NOT GOING TO ADD ANY MENTION OF PCPN TO THE TAFS UNTIL DEVELOP-
MENT IS NOTED ON RADAR. OTHERWISE VFR. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  95  75  95 /  10  10  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  75  95  75  94 /  10  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  90  80  91 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31