000
FXUS64 KHGX 251114
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING. THE MODELS AND SURFACE ANALSYSES INDICATE THAT THE BEST
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL AFFECT KCLL AND KUTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FELT THAT THE THUNDER CHANCES WERE MUCH LESS FROM KCXO TO THE
COAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS FOR KCXO AND
THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING TIME PERIOD.

CONDIIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 09Z.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM
ABOUT LUFKIN TO COLUMBUS AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER
EAST TEXAS FROM LUFKIN TO LAFAYETTE. SHRA/TSRA WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN AREA WITH STRONG 700 MB
CONVERGENCE. 850 MB MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL TODAY
WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS BETWEEN 13-16C. THE BEST 850 CONVERGENCE IS
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. FCST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING AS UNSTABLE AS
YESTERDAY. CAPPING REMAINS WEAK AND PW VALUES SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES TODAY. THE HI-RES MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY
THIS MORNING SO NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS BRING A SPEED MAX ACROSS SE TX TODAY WITH SE TX LYING
IN A LFQ. 300 MB WINDS ALSO SHOW A SPLIT OVER EAST TEXAS. FEEL
THERE ARE ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN PLACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS TODAY DESPITE THE BENIGN MASS FIELDS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE WEAKNESS AT 500 MB WILL BEGIN TO SCOOT EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS
WILL OCCUR. FEEL MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WILL MENTION
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTH IN CASE THE CIRCULATION MOVES
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION MON-TUE WITH WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL PUSH EAST ON WED/THU. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND SE TX LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON WED/THU
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SE TX KEEPING THE AREA WARM AND DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 43

MARINE...
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER OVER AND NEAR MATAGORDA BAY
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...THAT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS BY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  71  89  70  89 /  30  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  71  88  71  88 /  20  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  74  84  74  85 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40