952
FXUS64 KHGX 282105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

Light showers are currently ongoing across portions of SE Texas this
afternoon, with stronger/severe storms ongoing over portions of
Northeast Texas. SPC`s mesocale analysis depicts ample instability
across SE Texas, with SFC CAPE values of 2500-4000 J/KG, 3km ML CAPE
of 5-150 J/KG. MU LIs of -6 to -8, LCL heights of 500-1000m, and
midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 DegC/km. Ample shear remains present
throughout the region as well, with Effective Bulk shear around 40-
50 knots and 3km SRH of 150-250 m2s2. 3km EHI values range from 3-5,
Supercell Composite values of 8-12, Sig Tor Parameter values of 1-2,
and Large Hail Parameter values of 8-16. Enhanced Stretching
Potential values of 1-2 are currently focused west of I-45 just
north of the US-59 corridor right now, coinciding with higher VTP
values of 2-4. Model consensus and current observations suggest
isolated/scattered shower/thunderstorm development across SE Texas
this afternoon, with a larger line/cluster of storms forming this
evening over portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods along a
frontal boundary. This complex of thunderstorms should move
east/southeasterly overnight, pushing offshore Monday morning.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for areas north of the US-59 corridor
until 9 PM Tonight. These discrete storms will be capable of
producing all severe hazards, including damaging winds, large hail,
and even a few tornadoes. Additionally, these storms will also be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, with some models
suggesting the potential for training storms. A Flood Watch is
currently in effect across the northern third of our CWA until 10 AM
Monday. Rainfall totals will largely be up to 2" though isolated
higher amounts of 3-5" or higher will be possible. Locations outside
of the current watch areas will still be under a Marginal to Slight
Risk of Severe Weather/Excessive rainfall tonight into Monday
morning. Keep an eye on the forecast for additional updates, and be
sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings tonight.

The severe weather & heavy rainfall threat come to an end on Monday
as this complex of thunderstorms pushes offshore. Isolated showers &
storms will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday due to lingering
moisture. Otherwise, expect much more benign weather with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

With an active west to southwest flow aloft, a series of
disturbances will be moving across the area through much of this
period. With precipitable water values remaining on the elevated
side, a persistent onshore flow, and a stalling cold front, look for
periods of showers and thunderstorms across the area for much of the
week, generally higher inland (up north) and lower closer to the
coast. Each day, expect high temperatures in the 80s and low
temperatures in an upper 60s to lower 70s range.  42

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR to MVFR CIGS and gusty south to southeasterly winds can be
expected across SE Texas this afternoon. Light, isolated showers
have begun to develop over the area, with thunderstorms becoming
more likely later today. During the late afternoon/early evening,
clusters of thunderstorms should develop along a frontal boundary
near the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. This complex of
thunderstorms is expected to push east/southeasterly tonight,
with CIGS dropping to MVFR/IFR levels. Some of these thunderstorms
could become strong to severe at times. These showers and storms
should push off offshore/east of the area Monday morning, with
CIGs improving in it`s wake.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds (still at around 20 knots this
afternoon) and hazardous seas (10 feet at Buoy 42019 at 2 PM CDT)
will continue through late tonight. Minor coastal flooding is expected
in vulnerable locations at times of high tide (mainly during the day
today). There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best
chances from this evening through Monday morning, and then again during
the day on Tuesday (look for higher winds/seas/bays in and near any
storms). Winds will gradually decrease late tonight into Monday, with
lingering high seas keeping conditions hazardous through much of the
day on Monday. Generally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the rest of the upcoming week.  42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods through 10AM CDT on Monday morning. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will develop and move through portions of
Southeast Texas this afternoon into tonight. Some of these storms
may become strong to severe and produce heavy rainfall (rainfall
rates up to 2-2.5"/hr) that may lead to localized flooding
especially in low-lying areas or areas with poor drainage.
Generally expecting widespread rainfall totals around 2", but
pockets of 3-5+" inches will be possible especially if storms
train over the same locations repeatedly. The bulk of the heavier
rainfall looks to push out of the watch area by sunrise on Monday
morning, so the Flood Watch may be cancelled a few hours early.

There are currently no River Flood Warnings in effect. The Trinity
River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) fell below minor flood stage a short
while ago, so that River Flood Warning was cancelled. Additional
rainfall is expected this afternoon and tonight with the greater
confidence for higher rainfall totals along the Upper Trinity River.
As a result, we`ll need to monitor observations and forecasts along
this basin for impacts from the heavy rain and its subsequent runoff.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  86  68  84 /  60  10  10  30
Houston (IAH)  72  86  71  84 /  70  50  20  50
Galveston (GLS)  73  80  72  79 /  50  70  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195-
     196-198.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-
     313-337-338-437>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement until midnight CDT tonight for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CDT tonight
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CDT tonight
     through late tonight for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$