000
FXUS64 KHGX 160448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BOW ECHO OVER C TX SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARDS SE TX TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THINK MOMENTUM FROM SYSTEM SHOULD CARRY IT
INTO KCLL/KUTS AREA AROUND 6-8Z. STORM ENVIRONMENT STILL NOT AS
ROBUST AS C TX WITH LIMITED CAPE AND CIN FROM OVERNIGHT
STABILIZATION. MAIN THREAT FROM THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WITH HAIL AS SECONDARY THREAT. UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER N C TX WITH GREAT
INTEREST. UNFORTUNATELY SAD THAT THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT
DAMAMGE IN AREAS SW OF DFW METROPLEX. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THE 12Z
WRF-ARW AND RECENT RUNS OF HRRR TRY TO BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR NOW DO NOT SEE A LINE OF STORMS FORMING YET AND WILL WATCH FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. THINK 30 POPS FOR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
ENVIRONMENT IS A LOT LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH MOST
OF THE AREA CAPPED AND WITH LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. SUSPECT
THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS SE TX. THAT IS IF A
LINE OF STORMS CAN FORM WHICH GIVEN THE STORM MODE OF ISO
SUPERCELLS...NOT SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN. RIGHT NOW AREAS FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT ARE ON THE EDGE OF BETTER SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT BUT IT IS A FINE LINE. POSSIBLE SPC MAY WATCH THESE
AREAS LATER THIS EVENING BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN SINCE THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  85  71  89  72 /  50  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  84  71  88  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  79  73  78  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39