000
FXUS64 KHGX 141542
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1042 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. EXPECT TO SEE
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TOMORROW STILL LOOKS RAINY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS THE NEXT
STORMS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING CLOSE
TO RECORD RAINFALL...BUT HERE ARE THE NUMBERS (INCHES/YEAR) FOR
WEDNESDAY ANYWAY.

CLL - 3.85/1920
IAH - 4.64/1970
HOU - 4.38/1994
GLS - 2.36/1953

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO MORNING UPDATE IS PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS
ARE LOCATED SW OF THE AREA AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA WHERE DW PTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. EXPECT TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DW PTS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS PD IS THE CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS FEATURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS SE TX WED AFT AND
EVE. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. EXPECT TO SEE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS EARLY WED ACROSS
MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE E/NE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
EARLY EVE HOURS. DECIDED TO NUDGE THE POPS UP A LITTLE AREAWIDE ON
WED GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL QPF
FIELDS AND TIMING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING HOW
WIDESPREAD THE RAIN EVENT WILL BE...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE HIGH
CHC OR LIKELY POPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG
STORMS ON WED...BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW ATTM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER TROF...THE FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY
AND WARM WITH A PD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM FRI-MON EXPECTED AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROF
COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX ON TUE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. 33

MARINE...
WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FCST OF MODERATE/LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE
WSW WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND PRODUCE SCT PCPN FOR WEDS.
OTHERWISE NOT A LOT GOING ON AS WE EASE INTO OUR INCREASINGLY SUMMER
LIKE PATTERN. 41

AVIATION...

PATCHY FG NOTED AT OUR USUAL SITES SO FAR THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE
FINALLY DECOUPLED. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH VIS/CIG ISSUES ACROSS
THESE SITES THROUGH 15Z. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
WEDS MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  66  79  66  83 /  10  30  60  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  65  80  67  83 /  10  20  50  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  70  77  70  79 /  10  20  40  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43