000
FXUS64 KHGX 191457
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
957 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM...SLOW EASTERN-MOVING
POCKETS OF MID-MORNING RAIN (LOCALLY HEAVY OVER NORTHERN MADISON
COUNTY) AROUND THE LAKE LIVINGSTON REGION. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FEW SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES LAYING ABOUT WITHIN A
FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS (BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS) THAT MAY PROVIDE
BETTER LOW LEVEL FOCUS IF/WHEN CONVECTION DOES FIRE. NEAR 90F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
ENVIRONMENT SETS THE STAGE FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...OR WHERE THE
HIGHER OVERALL MOISTURE RESIDES. IF ACTIVITY DOES BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
LATTER TODAY...APPROXIMATELY 30 PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAIN. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

AVIATION...
CXO STILL DOWN AT 1/2SM FG AND VV002 BUT NEARLY ALL OTHER SITES
WERE VFR. THE SHOWERS WERE STILL LINGERING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CLL TO UTS TO JAS (TOPS <20KFT NEAR CLL/UTS). LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SCT/BKN
CIGS DEVELOPING BY 15-16Z BUT VFR AT 3500-5000FT. HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH 01-02Z. DIFFICULT
TO TELL WHERE THESE WILL FIRE WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA
BUT WOULD FAVOR THE UTS/CLL AREA WITH GREATER CHANCES EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON THEN DOWN NEAR IAH/HOU WITH SEABREEZE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS FAVOR SLOW EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION TODAY AND IF ONE GETS INTO A TERMINAL IT COULD HAMPER
OPERATIONS FOR LENGTHY PERIODS. SKIES SCATTERED IN THE EVENING
BUT EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z IN THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS. 45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WHILE NOT AS ACTIVE THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY...RADAR LOOPS DO IN-
DICATE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SFC BOUNDARIES LINGERING IN/AROUND
SE TX. GIVEN THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOME
WHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE REGION...WILL BE GOING WITH
SCT POPS FOR TODAY. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WITH THE STORMS THAT DO FORM.

FCST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TRENDING TOWARD WARMER TEMPS/LESS
POPS AS MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH-
ENING RIDGE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING UPPER LONGWAVE
TROF. HOWEVER NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE PREV-
IOUS MISSES OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. AS SUCH WILL BE KEEPING ISO
AFTN/DAYTIME POPS IN THE FCSTS FOR THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. 41

&&

MARINE...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT RELAXING IN THE
MORNING OVER THE GULF AND GENERALLY LIGHTER FOR THE BAYS WITH THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. TYPICAL WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND
NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY IN THE GULF. SEAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-4
FEET WITH THE GREATER 3 TO 4 FOOT VALUES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A
SMALL SWELL MOVING INTO THE REGION. LEADING EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TD2 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD EXPAND
NORTH AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. 45 &&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  75  96  75  97 /  30  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  95  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  80  90  81  91 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31