Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270825
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
325 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
across Southeast TX today, bringing a drier and cooler airmass from
the northwest. However, the mid to upper levels continue active with
multiple shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow. This
is in response to a longwave upper-trough moving across the Plains.
These passing shortwaves will result in increasing cloud cover and
will also serve as the main focus for isolated light showers and
storms today. Confidence in occurrence and coverage is moderate
given a dry sub-cloud layer where PWATs remain at or below 0.9
inches. The environment looks more favorable for light rain/storms
later this afternoon and evening as moisture increases a bit (PWs up
to 1.0 inches) and convergence strengthens with a passing warm
front. Have continued with 15 to 25 percent of rain/storms
today/this evening with the highest chances across our north-
northwest counties. Skies should gradually scatter out this evening
as forcing aloft moves out of the region. This will result in
another chilly night with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s.

Surface high pressure moves to our east on Thursday, shifting winds
to the south-southeast across the region. Warm and more humid
southerly flow will result in highs mainly in the upper 70s.
Overnight lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The long term continues to feature a building mid/upper ridge and
LL onshore flow on the back side of an eastward progressing sfc
high pressure system. As a result, the Friday to Monday time
frame will feature gradually warming temperatures and rising
humidity. Friday may still feel like spring with highs in the
mid/upper 70s. But by Monday, inland temperatures are expected to
be well into the 80s with 65-70 degree dew points. Couldn`t rule
out a few spots making a run for the 90 degree mark. Coastal
afternoon temps should generally be 5-10 degrees cooler. Pattern
may change by Tuesday as a mid/upper trough approaches from the
west and a cold front from the north. We continue to show some
PoPs on Tuesday as well as some cooler air (70s) in our northern
counties.

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period across SE
TX. Light N-NE winds will continue tonight and will strengthen to
5-10 KTS on Wed. Winds become VRB Wed afternoon thru Thu morning
as a sfc boundary meanders over the region. There is still a
chance for some showers and possible iso storms on Wed as an
upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains, but coverage
and intensity will depend on how strong the cap will be at that
time. Chance for storms look to be more possible during the
evening to early night hours, in particular for sites north of
HOU. Based on the latest HiRes guidance, SH/TS should exit to the
east of UTS around midnight.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Light to moderate northeast winds today are expected to weaken by
tonight. On Thursday, winds will veer southeast by the afternoon
and remain southeasterly through early next week. Seas will
gradually decrease today into Thursday. Southeasterly winds are
expected to become moderate to occasionally strong Friday through
the weekend into early next week. By Friday and Saturday, an
increasing southeasterly fetch is forecast to increase swell. The
swell could remain somewhat elevated (4-6 feet) into early next
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  47  75  53 /  20  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  49  77  54 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  59  69  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT early this
     morning for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self


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