Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 061621
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID MAY 06/1200 UTC THRU MAY 10/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SUN NIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. PREFER
THE QUICKER CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z CMC/00Z UKMET AND 00Z
ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE LEVEL OF CLUSTERING
AWAY FROM THE NAM.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET IS GENERALLY THE STRONGEST SOLUTION AMONG THE MODELS
ALOFT WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS...AND AS A
RESULT LEADS TO A MORE NORTHERLY SURFACE LOW SOLUTION. A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE MASS FIELD DETAILS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD MAINE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET IS MOST OUT OF TOLERANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH
GRADUALLY THE UKMET IS A TAD SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE LOW PLACEMENT. WILL FAVOR A
NON-UKMET CONSENSUS GIVEN BETTER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT AWAY FROM THE UKMET.


UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWINGING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST TONIGHT/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM HANGS ON TO A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT EXITS THE
EAST COAST ON SAT AND LIFTS UP TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
REMAINING MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED WITH TIMING AND DEPTH
OTHERWISE. SO WILL FAVOR A NON-NAM CONSENSUS AS A RESULT.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$




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