Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 280701
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID MAY 28/0000 UTC THRU MAY 31/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE CONTINUES TO BE HAVE THE BEST SUPPORT
FROM THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO IT CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL
PREFERENCE AT THIS POINT.  HAVING NOTED THAT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF BEING FASTER/FLATTER WHILE THE
GFS WAS AGAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.


CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: A NON-UKMET GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

NO REAL NOTEWORTHY ISSUES NOTED IN THE 28/00Z NCEP MODELS.  THAT
LEAVES THE 27/12Z UKMET AS BEING A BIT FASTER WITH THE CLOSED 500
MB CIRCULATION INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AZ BY MONDAY MORNING...IN PART
AIDED BY A THE UKMET CLOSING OFF A MID LEVEL HIGH UPSTREAM BY
31/06Z WHICH IS SOME 6 TO 12 HOURS EARLIER THAN OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS.


INITIALLY CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LIFTING NE
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY-UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET BACKED AWAY FROM ITS WEAKER/MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLN WITH THE WAVE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS LEAVES THE NAM ON ITS
OWN.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCLUDE THE 28/00Z UKMET IN THE MODEL
COMPROMISE.  THE CANADIAN  FIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK BY SUNDAY
EVENING.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 APPROACHING SOUTHEAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A BLEND OF THE 27/00Z ECWMF AND GFS RUNS...WITH WEIGHTING GIVEN TO
EACH MODEL VARYING BY TIME...APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST MATCH TO
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST
COAST.  REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST
REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...


BANN


$$





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