Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 250657
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION ALONG WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.

...SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WHILE MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES REMAIN...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES.

...STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

BY EARLY SUN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...THE
GFS HAS SLOWED A LITTLE FROM ITS 00Z RUN...BUT OVERALL BOTH THE
NAM/GFS HAVE SHOWN FAIRLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AND ARE
GENERALLY WELL-CLUSTERED WITH THE REMAINING 00Z RUNS.

...MEAN UPPER TROF ANCHORING THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF NORTH
AMERICA...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION WITH DIFFERENCES CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MESOSCALE.

...SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NORTHERN CA BY 28/0000Z...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

HERE ALSO DID NOT NOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONG THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

PEREIRA

$$





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