Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 290532
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH ANALYSIS AND INITIAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT SHORT TERM
FORECAST ERRORS


STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE DAKOTAS ON TUE REACHING JAMES BAY
BY FRIDAY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-MISS VALLEY
EARLY WED TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST BY FRI.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS.  THE
NCEP MODELS WERE STILL A TAD FASTER IN ELONGATING THE TROF BUT IT
DID NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.


LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST/FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THU
POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH / CLOSED LOW IN THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MID TO
LATE WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE KEPT REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND THEY WERE WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLNS SHOWN BY THE
DAY SHIFT ENSEMBLE MEANS.  SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM A
GFS/NAM/ECMWF BLEND USING THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN


$$





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