Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4

000
FXUS10 KWNH 291607
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU JUN 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET STRAYS FROM THE FLOCK BY BECOMING FASTER THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE -- ITS USUAL BIAS.  PREFER A COMPROMISE
OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SO
PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IN THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BY DEFAULT
CONFIDENCE: SEE NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS

THE 06Z GFS BEST MIRRORS THE 15Z NHC FORECAST.  REFER TO
DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.