Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 191610
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1209 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID APR 19/1200 UTC THRU APR 23/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST TUESDAY
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY NRN MAINE MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, AND A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED TO IRON OUT SMALLER SCALE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE
MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.


SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES/NEW ENG MON & TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM,
WITH BOTH DEPARTING THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE WITH ITS
CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE AREA ON TUESDAY.  THE CANADIAN HAS
TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS, ARGUING
FOR A WEAKER SOLUTION.  THE PATTERN IN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED
OTHERWISE FAVORS THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN AMPLITUDE WITH TIME AS
RIDGING UPSTREAM BUILDS.  THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FIT WITHIN THE
BETTER 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING, AND ARE PREFERRED WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CONTINUING SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z CANADIAN BECOMES QUICKER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.  SINCE THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS FAVOR THE SLOWER CONSENSUS, A NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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