Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 101611
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1110 AM EST SUN DEC 10 2017

VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


CLOSED LOW STUCK ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  A COMPROMISE
OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET, AND 00Z CANADIAN IS
PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND
CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO MAINE
CYCLONE/SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WHILE THERE ARE DETAIL ISSUES AT 500 HPA WITH THE SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH (THE 00Z ECMWF IS LIKELY TOO
STRONG), THESE ISSUES BARELY MANIFEST THEMSELVES IN THE 700 HPA
AND SURFACE PATTERNS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 00Z
ECMWF, 00Z UKMET, AND 00Z CANADIAN IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

ROTH


PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml

PREVIOUS 500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

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