Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 161640
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID SEP 16/1200 UTC THRU SEP 20/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


...TROPICAL STORM ODILE...

PREFERENCE: THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST

T.S. ODILE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST UP THROUGH THE BAJA
PENINSULA AS PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...AND A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CA AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MAINLAND MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLN...FOLLOWED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z NAM INITIALLY IS FARTHER
NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLNS...BUT GRADUALLY THE NAM
BECOMES TOO SLOW WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND INTO NM. THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM SPLIT
THE DIFF BETWEEN THE SLOWER NAM AND FASTER GFS. GIVEN THE TRENDS
IN THE ECMWF TO BE FASTER LIKE THE GFS...AND WITH THE GFS STILL
TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLN APPEARS REASONABLE SUCH AS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.


...DEEP UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE WESTERN STATES WED TO FRI...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY FRI. THE 00Z
GEM IS A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE 00Z UKMET DIGS ITS ENERGY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF ALL
CLUSTER VERY WELL THROUGH FRI. A CONSENSUS OF THESES SOLNS WILL BE
PREFERRED ATTM.


...UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA...
...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WED...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND 00Z
GEM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER/DEEPER THAN THE 00Z GEM AND 00Z ECMWF. THE
LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN ARE A TAD FASTER THOUGH LIKE THE
GEM/ECMWF CAMP...AND SO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WILL BE
PREFERRED ATTM.


...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRI...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRI ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z UKMET
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE 12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM A LITTLE SLOWER. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN IS
A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE NAM/UKMET SOLNS...AND THE ECENS
MEAN A LITTLE SLOWER. WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF ATTM.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$





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