Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 270639
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VALID SEP 27/0000 UTC THRU SEP 30/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE DROPPING INTO THE NRN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

CONVERGENCE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THEIR PAST DAY
OF RUNS, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ONLY 100 MILES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 500 HPA.  SINCE IT IS THAT CLOSE, PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


UPPER LOW WEAKENING NORTHWARD INTO SRN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MT LATE TUE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED/THU
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR FL TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY MAINE/ATLANTIC CANADA TUE/TUE NIGHT
LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT/WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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