Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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279
FXUS10 KWNH 290658
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND BOTH SHOWED
PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  THAT MEANT THAT THEY
CONTINUED TO HAVE THE SUPPORT OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE
NAM LOOKED TO BE THE SLOW OUTLIER.


CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL STILL DEPICTED A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE EC MEANS.
THE NAM HAD SEVERAL SMALL MID LEVEL LOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH SEEMED TO BE TOO MUCH
OF AN EASTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE UKMET SEEMED TO BE TOO WEAK.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL STORM BONNIE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST
REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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