Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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744
FXUS10 KWNH 230430
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

VALID JUN 23/0000 UTC THRU JUN 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SUNDAY NIGHT
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE EAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEMS.  PREFER
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 12Z UKMET, 12Z ECMWF, AND
12Z CANADIAN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN LAGGED THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS.  OTHERWISE, AT 500 HPA AND 700 HPA THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CINDY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A FRONTAL
WAVE.  THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET SHOW IT MORE DISTINCTLY THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.  CINDY`S CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS SHRINKING IN SCALE,
AND THE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES DOES NOT DEPICT SMALLER SYSTEMS AS
DEFINED AS IT SHOULD.  PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND
12Z UKMET HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

ROTH
$$





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