Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 230410
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1209 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID JUL 23/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


...MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THIS SYS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFF AMONG THE MODELS OVERALL...SO A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED ATTM.


...CLOSED LOW PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURS...
...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS IS AGAIN SOUTH OF THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS REGARDING THE CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH ALBERTA
INTO SASKATCHEWAN...WITH THE 00Z GFS GRADUALLY BECOMING THE
FASTEST SOLN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE 12Z GEM
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IS ALSO SEEN BEING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 00Z NAM HAS BETTER CLUSTERING WITH THE
MORE CONSISTENT 12Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF. BASED ON STRONGER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND CONTINUITY...WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWF ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC WITH THE DETAILS OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS..


...BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
BY FRI...
...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ALL THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT HERE SO WILL PREFER A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$




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