Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 141620
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1120 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID FEB 14/1200 UTC THRU FEB 18/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT HERE, SO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS MON/TUES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE ARE SLIGHT DEPTH ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM ALOFT, WHICH HAVE
LED TO LATITUDE ISSUES WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.  THE 12Z NAM IS
OUTSIDE THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE, AND NOT CONSIDERED
USEFUL.  OTHERWISE, THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN CLUSTER
WELL WITH THE MEANS AND LIE BEST WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE LOW
CLUSTERING, SO THERE ARE PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


SRN PLAINS/EAST COAST SYSTEM MONDAY & TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM WAS QUITE STRONG ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY
SLOW WITH ITS PROGRESSION, SIMILAR TO UKMET RUNS FROM SATURDAY.
THE 00Z CANADIAN IS UNIQUELY QUICK.  AS THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO STRONG AND THAT ITS
SLOW BIAS IS SHOWING UP FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD.  A COMPROMISE OF THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET FITS WITHIN THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
LOW SPREAD, AND IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.



...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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