Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 280640
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID JUL 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 31/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

FINAL MODEL EVALUATION...

...DYNAMIC UPPER LOW ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...
...ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A DYNAMIC OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EARLY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH-EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND ON MON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRANSITION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE DOWNSTREAM ALONG
WITH THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE ANOMALOUS SURFACE LOW FROM WRN NY
TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WPC WILL RECOMMEND A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AND FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN ASPECT OF THE
SYSTEM... PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST QPFPFD.

...MEAN UPPER TROF ANCHORING OVER THE EAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AS THE DYNAMIC
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE NERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON
MON... THE CLOSED UPPER VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC IS RETROGRADE SOUTH
AND WEST... REACHING NERN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURS MORNING. OVERALL
VERY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE AND WPC WILL RECOMMEND A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE ON THIS ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH.

...MULTITUDE OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER
RIDGE...

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

VERY LITTLE CHANGES DURING THE FCST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS... STARTING OFF
VERY STRONG BEFORE SHRINKING AND WEAKENING OVER TIME. MODELS
DEPICT A MULTITUDE OF SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN THE
ACTIVE MONSOONAL FLOW ARRIVING INTO THE DESERT SW BEFORE LIFTING
OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/UT/CO AND POSSIBLY GLIDING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THUS EXPECT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME ORGANIZED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALL THREE DAYS. THE
MOST GLARING SMALL SCALE CONCERN BEGINS TUES NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING... AS DYNAMICS SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF CO INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND ENERGY LIFTS TOWARD THE INTERIOR NW. CONCERNING THE
DYNAMIC ARRIVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ALL THE MODELS DEPICT AN
IDEAL WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN FROM SWRN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO THE ARKLATEX. MEANWHILE
THE GUIDANCE SHOW A DISTINCT BATCH OF DYNAMICS LIFTING UP THE
SIERRA ON MON AND PROCEED TOWARD THE INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES ON
TUES AND WED. THIS COULD FUEL DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS BUT ALSO BE A
HINDRANCE IN DRY LIGHTNING THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL WPC REALLY
PREFERS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON THE BIG PICTURE BUT A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

MUSHER

$$




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