Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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802
FXUS10 KWNH 030706
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID MAY 03/0000 UTC THRU MAY 06/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION OF THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF

COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES THROUGH WED
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
  COAST ON WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHEAST...SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTS.

MUCH LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS...THE 00Z GFS IS ON THE STRONGER
SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD WHILE THE NAM SHOWED A DIFFERENT
SURFACE PATTERN OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT.  THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
REMAINED ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD GIVEN ITS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...AND IT STILL REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE POSITION.


CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WED...REACHING THE
  MID-ATLANTIC STATES THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB WHILE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET FORMED A FAIRLY
TIGHT CLUSTER.  THE NAM WAS SLOW/WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL CENTER.
THE ENSEMBLES CLUSTER A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 06/12Z WHICH IS NEAR A COMPROMISE OF THE
NAM AND ECMWF.


COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUE
CLOSED LOW REACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

NO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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