Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 291613
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1212 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID JUL 29/1200 UTC THRU AUG 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE CA COAST INTO THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IS HANDLED REASONABLY SIMILAR -- PARTICULARLY
AT 700 HPA -- BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE CANADIAN IS
STRONGER -- ITS USUAL BIAS.  BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA, THE 12Z NAM SPEEDS UP ITS
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION NEAR THE MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER MORE
THAN SEEN ON THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET WITH AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS APPARENTLY CONVECTIVE ORIGIN.


LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS REGION.  A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE SHOULD BE SUFFICE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
CONSIDERING THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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