Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 280424
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1223 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

VALID JUN 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP-LAYERED LOW MOVING BY THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS; CONFIDENCE AVERAGE

FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD, THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z UKMET APPEAR TO
FORM CONVECTIVE LOWS NEAR THIS FEATURE -- WITH THE 00Z NAM SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT GRID SCALE FEEDBACK -- WHICH ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  SINCE A SMALL CONVECTIVE LOW STRENGTHENING
WHILE CROSSING THE STILL-CHILLY LAKE HURON AND LAKE ONTARIO
APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY, HAVE RULED THESE SOLUTIONS OUT AS
IMPROBABLE.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 12Z CANADIAN, AND 12Z
ECMWF APPEARS BEST HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY WED/THURS AND INTO N NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY/SAT
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY/WED
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET, 12Z ECMWF, AND 12Z
CANADIAN IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

ROTH
$$





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