Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 170415
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1214 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

VALID OCT 17/0000 UTC THRU OCT 20/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER TUE-THU
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
TROUGH TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY
LINGERING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
STALLING COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE, 700 HPA, AND 500
HPA WITH THE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE LOWER 48 OVER THE NEXT 84
HOURS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET,
00Z GFS, AND 00Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

ROTH
$$





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