Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS10 KWNH 300459
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID MAY 30/0000 UTC THRU JUN 02/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED
CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...WHICH SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE VARIOUS FEATURES WHEN COMPARED WITH THE 00Z GFS...12Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THAT SUGGESTS
THAT A NON-NAM CONSENSUS APPROACH WOULD WORK FINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IN THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST
REASONING. THE 03Z NHC TRACK APPEARED TO BE CLOSE TO A 18Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF CONSENSUS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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