Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 110643
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VALID JUL 11/0000 UTC THRU JUL 14/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES, A
DOWNSTREAM COLD LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
INTERNATIONAL FALLS, WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY ESCAPING NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC.  THE 00Z NAM IS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND STRONGER WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN -- TWO OF ITS
USUAL BIASES -- WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS THE QUICKEST -- ONE OF ITS
USUAL BIASES.  THE UKMET HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS SYSTEM`S PROGRESSION
SINCE ITS 12Z RUN.  CONSIDERING ABOVE, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS GUIDANCE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE MODEL BIASES.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY/MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE FLOW PATTERN WOULD
ARGUE FOR A QUICKER SOLUTION.  THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-GFS
COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERED, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE,
CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE.


UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
CONSIDERING THE MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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