Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 010650
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

VALID JUN 01/0000 UTC THRU JUN 04/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET AND CMC

***THE 00Z ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS VERSION OF THE PMDHMD

...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

IN THE WAKE OF VORT ENERGY SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...A NEW NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DIG ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW PRESSURE
ALREADY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AND ELONGATE THROUGH MON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES
SOUTHEAST. ON TUES...LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP FARTHER NORTH
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT
FALLS. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THEIR MASS FIELDS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED TO
RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.


...UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...

PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET GRADUALLY BECOMES A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN ADVANCING THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WILL PREFER A NON-UKMET CONSENSUS.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MON AND TUES.
...ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED...
...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

AN UPPER TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY EAST AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MON. THE
ENERGY WILL THEN SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUES NIGHT
AND WED. THE ENERGY THOUGH WILL DRIVE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS LOW CENTER ALONG WITH A FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THERE IS GOOD MASS FIELD AS THE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
INTERIOR...BUT AS THE ENERGY GETS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY...THE NAM TENDS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
REMAINING GLOBAL MODELS...A NON-NAM CONSENSUS WILL BE PREFERRED
FOR MASS FIELDS.


...UPPER TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE WEST BY WED...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE QUICKLY CROSSING THE WEST
COAST ON WED AND WILL HELP RELOAD A LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN THE
WEST BY THURS. THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z CMC ARE STILL A TAD FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD DEFINITELY BECOMES A SLOWER AND DEEPER OUTLIER ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND ESPECIALLY WITH ITS CLOSED LOW SOLUTION. THE
00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
CLUSTER WELL IN BETWEEN CAMPS. THUS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
WILL BE PREFERRED.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$





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