Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 030635
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID SEP 03/0000 UTC THRU SEP 06/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE.


NEGATIVELY-TILTED SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM`S PROGRESSION WHILE
THE CONSENSUS CONVERGES ON A SLIGHTLY QUICKER FORECAST (AGAINST
THE USUAL ECMWF BIAS BUT ALONG THE LINES OF THE USUAL UKMET BIAS).
 THE STRENGTH ALOFT OF THE 00Z NAM CAUSES ITS SURFACE LOW SOLUTION
IN MONTANA TO BECOME THE MOST WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT -- ITS USUAL
BIAS.  THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEANS BEST SUPPORT THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z
UKMET SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST SAT/SUN
700 HPA LOW LOOPING ACROSS MI THURSDAY & FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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