Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 030811
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

VALID AUG 03/0000 UTC THRU AUG 06/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST -- ONE OF ITS USUAL BIASES.  THE 00Z UKMET WAS THE
SHARPEST/DEEPEST ALOFT.  WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS, FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM/00Z GFS WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE MS RIVER WED PM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET WAS UNIQUELY SLOW WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WHILE
THE 00Z GFS WAS UNUSUALLY WEAK ALOFT.  OTHERWISE, THE GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING IN THIS REGION.  THE 00Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SEEN IN THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, AND ARE PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM FL UP THE CAROLINA COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET IS EXTREMELY BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT FLIES
OUT TO SEA NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS -- WHICH IS THEIR BIAS.  FOR
THE MOMENT, THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORED BY THE 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SO IT IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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