Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 301608
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1207 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID MAY 30/1200 UTC THRU JUN 03/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NEW ENGLAND TUES/EXITING EARLY
WED AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND VERY CLOSE
TO THE 00Z UKMET;  COMPARED TO THE FASTER 00Z CMC/ECMWF AND SLOWER
12Z GFS...DIFFERENCES WITH THE UKMET/NAM ARE SMALL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AND OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IN/NEAR THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLEASE REFER TO DISCUSSION AND BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST
REASONING.  THE 15Z NHC TRACK APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH AN
ONSHORE VERSION OF A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED WEAKENING
INTO CANADA BY THUR
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH 02/00Z
             12Z GFS AND 00Z CMC/ECMWF BLEND AFTERWARD
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE THRU 02/00Z THEN AVERAGE AFTERWARD

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN PLACEMENT/STRENGTH AND TIMING THROUGH THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT
AND PIVOTING STAGES OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH EVENTUAL MODEL SPREAD
GROWING AFTER 02/00Z DEPENDENT ON RATE OF WEAKENING AND/OR
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN CANADIAN SYSTEM.  THE 12Z NAM HAS BACKED
OFF A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM TOWARD PRIOR CONSENSUS BUT IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH INTERACTION FROM THE NORTH BY THE END OF DAY 3 TO
STAND OUT IN THE SPREAD.  THE 00Z UKMET ALSO SHOWS BIAS ONCE THE
INNER CORE WINDS DOWN MIDDAY THURS...MAKING IT FASTER.  THE 12Z
GFS SHIFTED A BIT SLOWER AND NORTHWARD...THIS IS MOST EVIDENT AT
THE SURFACE AS IT IS ON THE N SIDE OF THE SURFACE CLUSTER AS THE
LOW WOBBLES IN ND/W MN BEFORE TRACKING DUE EAST (WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CLUSTER).  THIS BRINGS SOME QUESTION TOWARD ITS INCLUSION BUT
STILL RESEMBLE THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC WHICH ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE SUITE.  AS SUCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND FAVORING THE LATTER AFTER 02/00Z AT AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE (WITH AN OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND PRIOR TO 02/00Z AT
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE).


CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z CMC/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z UKMET CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHORTWAVE/MCS FEATURES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE MASS FIELDS AND
INTERACTION WITH THE OTHERWISE WELL AGREED UPON CENTER OF THE WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO W TX PANHANDLE BY THURS EVENING.
THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF BUT NOW ON PAR WITH
THE 00Z CMC CLOSE ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE BLEND AND CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION.  AS SUCH WILL PREFER THE
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

GALLINA

$$





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