Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
FXUS10 KWNH 220410
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID MAY 22/0000 UTC THRU MAY 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAT/SUN
SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS SUN/MON
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH ITS UPPER
LOW PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN VORTICITY LOBE
THROUGH NV SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.  WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS,
A NON-GFS COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED FOR THE WEST.  IN REGARDS TO THE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES
A QUICK/NORTHERN OUTLIER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WITH THIS SYSTEM,
A NON-UKMET COMPROMISE IS ADVISED.  IN GENERAL, A COMPROMISE OF
THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/00Z NAM MASS FIELDS LOOKS BEST IN THIS
REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEMS MOVING BY THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE HANDLES FEATURES IN THIS REGION SIMILARLY.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.