Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 101625
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VALID JUL 10/1200 UTC THRU JUL 14/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

==================================================
12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
==================================================
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.
==================================================

...DEEP CYCLONE TO INFLUENCE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN U.S...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM WITH 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN

ASIDE FROM THE 00Z UKMET WHICH CONTINUED FAST ALOFT...THE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...850 MB TEMPERATURE AND 500 MB HEIGHT EXCEED 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...AND DIP TO MINUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE
TROUGH INTENSIFYING NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. AT THE SURFACE
THE GFS HAS TENDED TO LAG WITH THE LEADING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 2/3. HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH SOME AIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL MORE LIKELY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTHWARD TO THE EXTENT DEPICTED IN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS.


...EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THE RIO GRANDE BASIN TOWARD ARIZONA...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS

THIS MEDIUM WAVELENGTH INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
STEADILY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THERE ARE FEW LARGE SCALE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. PRECIPITATION
IN THE NAM DOES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE RELATIVE TO
CONSENSUS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO COLORADO.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS WITH 00Z ECMWF

THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A DAY 3 POSITION NEAR THE RECENT RUNS OF
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z UKMET WAS IN A SIMILAR
POSITION...THOUGH IT WAS LESS AMPLIFIED AND PLACED A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM FARTHER OFFSHORE. RECENT RUNS OF THE CANADIAN...THROUGH
THE 10/00Z CYCLE...HAVE TENDED TO BE SLOW OUTLIERS.


...TROUGH LIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS

THIS FEATURE REMAINS RELEVANT PERHAPS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THROUGH THAT TIME THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BURKE
$$




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