Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 231836
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

VALID MAY 23/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CLOSED LOW LIFTING FROM MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST MON-WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH WED.


QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED
BEFORE THE GFS BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER...LEAVING MORE OF THE
REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA THAN WHAT THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE GEFS MEAN ARE SHOWING.  AT THIS POINT
THE LATEST ECMWF FALLS NEAR THE MIDST OF THE MODEL SPREAD.


SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN QUE...COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH WED.  THE UKMET BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER
THEREAFTER.


UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

BY EARLY WED AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...THE NAM
BECOMES A RELATIVE OUTLIER AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS --
INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE WED.  THROUGH LATE WED...THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT -- INDICATING A MORE SHEARED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE MOVED IN BETTER
AGREEMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NO
LONGER TAKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THU.  WHILE THE UKMET IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...IT IS EXHIBITING SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH A SHORTWAVE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAT TRACKS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY WED
MORNING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THU.

TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST BY
TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY
WELL-CLUSTERED THROUGH WED...WITH THE GFS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN ON THU.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

PEREIRA

$$




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