Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 281643
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

VALID SEP 28/1200 UTC THRU OCT 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH/LOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY TRENDED INTO CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z
ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS GOOD AGREEMENT WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z NAM AND 0Z UKMET ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT EITHER...JUST APPEAR SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR AND ID ON SAT. THE
0Z GEM SHOWS A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION IN GENERAL AND APPEARS TO
REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY SOLUTION.


DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS MIDWEST DOUBLING BACK TOWARDS MI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO
BOTH THE LONGITUDE AND LATITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW...TRENDING WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THE TWO ARE NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE TWO. THE 12Z NAM AND 0Z UKMET/GEM ARE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT...BUT STRAY ENOUGH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS TO KEEP THEM OUT OF OUR PREFERENCE FOR NOW. FOR DETAILS
ON QPF PLEASE SEE THE QPFPFD AND QPFERD.


CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SHORTWAVE LIFTING MOVING INTO ND FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY
LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.



...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

CHENARD

$$





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