Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 011635
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

VALID JUN 01/1200 UTC THRU JUN 05/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST
SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC/COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONVERGENCE TOWARD ONE ANOTHER OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS AND SHOW ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO PREFER A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.


UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM...12Z GFS...00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
700-500 MB LOW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHTS HAVE SHOWN
CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z CMC IS SOUTH
OF THE CONSENSUS...WHILE THE UKMET IS A BIT NORTH AND QUICKER.


SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MON AND TUE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS BEST HERE...WITH THE 12Z GFS SIMILAR IN
POSITION REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST...BUT
THE GFS IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE
12Z NAM IS ON THE STRONG SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOULD BE USED
WITH CAUTION. TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES BEST SUPPORT A BLEND CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF/GFS.


UPPER TROUGH RELOADING OVER THE WEST BY WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH F084
HOURS WITH THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BEST MATCHING THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE UKMET IS SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
WHILE THE 00Z CMC IS BROADER AND QUICKER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO

$$




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