Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
000
FXUS10 KWNH 281901
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

VALID SEP 28/1200 UTC THRU OCT 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH/LOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY TRENDED INTO CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z
ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS GOOD AGREEMENT WILL PREFER A BLEND OF
THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z NAM AND 0Z UKMET ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT EITHER...JUST APPEAR SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN WA/OR AND ID ON SAT. THE
0Z GEM SHOWS A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION IN GENERAL AND APPEARS TO
REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY SOLUTION.

19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHORTWAVE FEATURE...ADDING MORE CREDIBILITY TO
THE SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM/UKMET. THE 12Z GEM LOOKS MORE
SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND WHICH WILL FOLLOW A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION.


DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS MIDWEST DOUBLING BACK TOWARDS MI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO
BOTH THE LONGITUDE AND LATITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW...TRENDING WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THE TWO ARE NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO
RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE TWO. THE 12Z NAM AND 0Z UKMET/GEM ARE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT...BUT STRAY ENOUGH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS TO KEEP THEM OUT OF OUR PREFERENCE FOR NOW. FOR DETAILS
ON QPF PLEASE SEE THE QPFPFD AND QPFERD.

19Z UPDATE: OVERALL ALL THE GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLY CLOSE WITH
THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE A BIT
NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY...AND THE 12Z UKMET IS
CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE BEST CLUSTERING BY
FRI/SAT.


CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SHORTWAVE LIFTING MOVING INTO ND FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY
LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.



...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

CHENARD

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.