Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 250517
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
117 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

VALID MAY 25/0000 UTC THRU MAY 28/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIGGING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST THU...EXITING NEW ENGLAND FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES FROM THE OH VALLEY ON THU TO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY LATE FRI.

CLOSED LOW TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER WITH
DEVELOPING TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FRI...NORTHERN
ROCKIES SAT AND NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00 UTC NAM AND GFS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
12 UTC RUNS.  THEREFORE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE NCEP MODELS REMAINING SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12 UTC ECMWF.
IN ADDITION TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT...THE NCEP MODELS BOTH
DEVELOP A MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SUN.  THE 00 UTC
UKMET IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...PUTTING IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
NAM/GFS.  THE CANADIAN HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT.  THIS LEAVES THE
12 UTC ECMWF AS A RELATIVE PROGRESSIVE AND FLATTER OUTLIER AMONGST
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.  THE 18 UTC GEFS MEAN AND THE
12 UTC EC ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH SUPPORT THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS
RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST NAEFS...LEANS CLOSER TO THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS.  WITH THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS SUPPORT FOR THE
FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION...RECOMMEND
LEANING AWAY FROM ITS SOLUTION IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN.

WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

PEREIRA

$$





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