Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 240413
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1213 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID OCT 24/0000 UTC THRU OCT 27/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS A SLOW SOLUTION WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC, WHICH CAN BE ONE OF ITS BIASES.  ITS SURFACE SOLUTION
IS ALSO MORE DEPRESSED THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, NOT SHOWING A MORE
NORTHERN LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IS OTHERWISE
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING.  THE 00Z GFS LAGS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY.  THE 00Z NAM IS STRONGER WITH A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
WHICH LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY MORNING, OUTRACING THE 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING.


UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN IS A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM, ONE OF ITS
USUAL BIASES.  OTHERWISE, THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM.


CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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