Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 290519
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017

VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL) IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL) IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTH TX ON MON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL) IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE WOBBLING ABOUT ONTARIO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/UKMET AND 12 UTC ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON WED ALONG WITH A COMPACT LOW DIGGING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.  OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN
GLOBAL)...THE 12 UTC REMAINS THE LARGEST OUTLIER...AMPLIFYING THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ON THU.
OTHERWISE...THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES.
LINGERING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE NAM/GFS/UKMET AND 12 UTC ECMWF
MAY BE ADDRESSED WITH A GENERAL COMPROMISE.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/


PEREIRA

$$





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