Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 221624
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1223 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID APR 22/1200 UTC THRU APR 26/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS


...MID LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IMPACTING NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH THE NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS THAT DIG SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENERGY WILL
GO NEG-TILT WHILE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON WED AND THEN CLOSE OFF
JUST OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. THE NAM DOES COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER THE ENERGY
EXITS EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS
ATTM.


...LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE NORTHERN
STATES BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING INCONSISTENCIES RUN TO RUN ON THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSES THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THURSDAY. THE 12Z NAM IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE 00Z UKMET THE
WEAKEST SOLN. THE 00Z GEM BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THAT MODEL HOLDING MUCH MORE ENERGY BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MIDWEST WHEREAS MOST OF THE MODELS
SUPPORT THE ENERGY CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THEN. SFC
AND ALOFT...THE 00Z ECMWF TENDS TO HAVE THE STRONGER ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT WHICH INCLUDES THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND THE ECENS MEAN.
WILL FAVOR THE 00Z ECMWF ATTM.


...BROAD TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

OVERALL THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND CROSSING THE WEST COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE 12Z NAM IS
PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO STRONG ALOFT...ESP OVER THE PAC
NORTHWEST...BUT THE REMAINING MODELS CLUSTER TOGETHER RATHER WELL
FOR DEPTH...AND ACTUALLY THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF
THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING DETAILS OF THE TROUGH. WILL PREFER
A NON-NAM CONSENSUS ATTM.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$





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