Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 240641
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID OCT 24/0000 UTC THRU OCT 27/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS A SLIGHTLY DEEP OUTLIER ALOFT ACROSS MT EARLY
MONDAY, AND ITS SURFACE SOLUTION IS MORE DEPRESSED THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS, NOT SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN LOW ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IS OTHERWISE SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING.  THE 00Z NAM IS STRONGER WITH A
PRECEDING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, WHICH LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING, OUTRACING THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING.


UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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