Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 270702
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID MAY 27/0000 UTC THRU MAY 30/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TODAY
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS...BUT THE OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
00Z NCEP AND NON NCEP MODELS REMAINS GOOD.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

ONCE AGAIN...THE CURRENT RUN OF THE UKMET REMAINS AN OVERLY DEEP
OUTLIER COMPARED WITH OTHER MODELS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY OUT
OVER THE PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.  THE UKMET EVENTUALLY WEAKENS THE
WAVE AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST...BUT IT REMAINS AN
OUTLIER ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY.  THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN
WERE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND THEY HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF
AND GEFS MEANS...SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EARLIER PREFERRENCES.


UPPER LOW IN THE FL STRAITS
CONVECTIVE LOW APPROACHING SOUTHEAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

GIVEN RELATIVELY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BY THE NCEP
GUIDANCE...THE 26/12Z CANADIAN REMAINED ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE GUIDANCE.  SAW NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
PREFERRENCES FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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