Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
000
FXUS10 KWNH 290453
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID JUL 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MEAN UPPER TROF ANCHORING OVER THE EAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD... THE CLOSED UPPER
VORTEX WALLOWS AROUND JAMES BAY. THE SLIGHT NEG TILT TO THE TROUGH
AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO
THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE BY FRI MORNING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OVERALL VERY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THE
GUIDANCE AND WPC WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE ON THIS
ANOMALOUS FEATURE.


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS OVER SERN ID/NRN UT WILL SLOWLY
CREEP SOUTH AND EAST ON TUES BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES AND LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS NEAR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW AN ARRAY OF IMPULSES TO GLIDE DOWN THE NWRLY UPPER
FLOW. THE GREATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT BEGINS TUES EVENING
OVER SERN WY/ERN CO WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS... EXPAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SWRN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES BEFORE PROGRESSING
DOWNSTREAM INTO OK/EXTREME SRN KS FOR WED. THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS
BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT A BIT DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE SOUTH BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL STRETCH FROM THE ARKLATEX TO MS.
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS DETAILED FEATURE WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES
WITH QPF. WPC WILL RECOMMEND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE ON THE
PATTERN AND FOR MORE ON THE QPF... PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
QPFPFD.


CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A GOOD PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PAC TROPICAL ENTITY HERNAN GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE ACTIVE MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE WEST. THIS FEATURE BECOMES A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED LATE WED INTO THURS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA
BEFORE LIFTING NNEWRD TO SERN OR/SRN ID. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER NV INTO SERN OR/SRN ID ON THURS. WPC
REALLY PREFERS THE AGREEABLE DETAILS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THIS
FEATURE OVER THE OTHER GUIDANCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

MUSHER

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.