Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 281613
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1213 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID MAY 28/1200 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR
SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NRN PLAINS TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS COMPROMISE CONTINUES TO BE HAVE THE BEST
SUPPORT FROM THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO IT CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL
PREFERENCE AT THIS POINT.  CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST AVERAGE
CONSIDERING THE WELL-CLUSTERED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE
00Z ENSEMBLE LOW PLOT.


CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THERE IS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO EXPECT A CLOSED CENTER AT 500 HPA.
THIS SUPPORTS THE 12Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF, A COMPROMISE OF
WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 APPROACHING SOUTHEAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN APPEARS TO BE
THE CLOSEST MATCH TO THE 15Z NHC TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS FORECAST AS THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A SLOWER RECURVATURE.  REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND
BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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