Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 311713
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID AUG 31/1200 UTC THRU SEP 04/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUE-WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM / 00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THERE ARE THE USUAL DIFFERENCES WITH THE INTENSITY AND SPEED OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH WHICH
CREATE SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS STRUCTURE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE SHAPE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN BOTH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUPPORT A BLEND OF THE
NAM/ECMWF BUT THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE FASTER SIDE WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN MONTANA ON THU.


MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EAST TEXAS BY TUE MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 00Z ECMWF MODEL CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT FIT IN WITH TRENDS AND THE REMAINING
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WHICH ORGANIZED OVER EAST TEXAS ON TUE. THE
ECMWF TAKES THE LOW EAST...WHILE THE NON 00Z ECMWF MODEL CONSENSUS
HOLDS THE UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO.


MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUE MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS...00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF BEST FITTING THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.


LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...REMNANTS OF
  TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 00Z CMC MODEL CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED AT 15Z ROUGHLY 170 MILES WEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA...APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z CMC...THE MODELS AGREE WITH TAKING
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST WHILE EITHER DISSIPATING THE
LOW COMPLETELY OR ELONGATING THE LOW INTO A TROUGH AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. WHILE THE THE 00Z CMC
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO..IT IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE NON 00Z
CMC MODEL CONSENSUS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO

$$





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