Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 270623
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID JUL 27/0000 UTC THRU JUL 30/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.


...DYNAMIC UPPER LOW MIGRATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST...
...STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL HAVE MOVED INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLOBAL
SLOWING THEIR TRACKS OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATE MON-EARLY TUE.

...MEAN TROF ANCHORING NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
AND POSITION OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MID-LEVEL ENERGY GENERALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A REVIEW OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS DID NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

PEREIRA

$$





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